Schwartz (1997)

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Schwartz (1997) - The Art of the Long View

He recommends that firms set up scenarios to predict the future. They are useful to classify people into different types of responses. Schwartz categorises people into optimists, pessimists and those which like the status quo.

The right perspective to take on scenarios is a changing focus from a broad picture to a specific concern. Global changes are as important as industry ones.

Wide ranging research is necessary, such as politics and technology, not just the status quo within the firm or industry, as this will facilitate a greater understanding of the potential future. Shell has a Global Business Network, which brings together people who come from different areas and bring different perspectives to a given situation or scenario.